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Growth rates in the Italian fragrance market aren't forecast to exceed 2% until 2017, according to market research firm Canadean, as the impact of the world's tough economy continues to weigh on customers' minds.
Italy’s Gross Domestic Product has fallen sharply since 2007, which has impacted consumer spending on both essential and non-essential products, such as fragrances. Canadean forecasts the fragrances sector in Italy will grow by a volume Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of just 1.4% during 2012-2017, while value growth is forecast to be even lower, at just 0.8%.
Although it is the largest category with over 60% of the sector, women's fragrance is projected to show the slowest growth. The category will just meet average growth with a value CAGR at 0.7% and a volume CAGR of 1.4%. Men's fragrances are expected to perform slightly better in both value and volume terms, with CAGRs of 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The category commanded just above a 38% share in both volume and value terms in 2012.
Unisex fragrances are expected to be the best performing category, although possessing a much lower market share, with 1.5% for both value and volume in 2012. Growth in this category is projected to be just slightly above sector levels, with value and volume CAGR at 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.